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Weekly Great Lakes Water Levels

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Weekly Forecast

WEEKLY GREAT LAKES WATER LEVEL UPDATE

Feb 17, 2017

 

WEATHER CONDITIONS

The last 7 days started out with a warm but windy weekend, followed by cooling to more normal winter conditions into the middle of the workweek. With warm lake surface water temparatures and high winds, areas in New York were once again hit with lake effect snow multiple times during the last week.  Over the weekend and into the workweek, expect another respite from winter. This time, record high temperatures are forecast over the weekend; highs in the upper 50s and 60s are expected in some locations. The 7-day forecast calls for precipitation amounts ranging from 0.1 inch to 1 inch, with the highest amounts over northern Lake Superior.

LAKE LEVEL CONDITIONS

Lakes Superior and Michigan Huron are 2 and 3 inches below what they were at this time last year, respectively. Lake St. Clair and Lake Erie are above their levels from last year by 7 and 5 inches, respectively. Lake Ontario is near its level of a year ago. Lake Superior is 2  inches below its level of a month ago and Lake Michigan-Huron is near its level from last month. Lake St. Clair is 2 inches below last month’s level, while Erie and Ontario have risen 4 and 8 inches, respectively, in the past month. Over the next 30 days, Lake Superior is projected to fall 2 inches. Lake Michigan-Huron is expected to rise one inch, and Lakes St. Clair, Erie, and Ontario are all forecast to rise about 3 inches during the next 30 days. See our Daily Levels web page for more water level information.

FORECASTED MONTHLY OUTFLOWS/CHANNEL CONDITIONS

Lake Superior’s outflow through the St. Mary’s River is projected to be above average. Lake Michigan-Huron’s outflow into the St. Clair River, and Lake St. Clair’s outflow through the Detroit River are predicted to be above average. Lake Erie’s outflow into the Niagara River is also forecasted to be above average. Nevertheless, outflow of Lake Ontario into the St. Lawrence River is projected to be near average for the month of February.

ALERTS

Official records are based on monthly average water levels and not daily water levels. Users of the Great Lakes, connecting channels and St. Lawrence River should keep informed of current conditions before undertaking any activities that could be affected by changing water levels. Mariners should utilize navigation charts and refer to current water level readings. Ice information can be found at the National Ice Center’s website.

SUPERIOR

MICH-HURON

ST. CLAIR

ERIE

ONTARIO

Forecasted Water Level for Feb 17, 2017 (feet)

601.77

578.97

574.90

572.21

245.51

Chart Datum (feet)

601.10

577.50

572.30

569.20

243.30

Difference from chart datum (inches)

+8

+18

+31

+36

+27

Difference from average water level for Jan 17, 2017 (inches*)

-2

0

-2

+4

+8

Difference from average water level for Feb 17, 2016 (inches*)

-2

-3

+7

+5

0

Difference from long-term monthly average of Feb (inches)

+6

+8

+18

+17

+9

Difference from highest monthly average of record for Feb (inches)

-8

-25

-22

-15

-17

Year of highest recorded monthly mean

1986

1986

1986

1987

1952

Difference from lowest monthly average of record for Feb (inches)

26

35

53

48

41

Year of lowest recorded monthly mean

1926

1964

1926

1936

1936

Projected change in levels by Mar 17, 2017 (inches)

-2

+1

+3

+3

+3

ALL DATA SHOWN IN THIS SUMMARY ARE REFERENCED TO IGLD 1985

*VALUES FOR SPECIFIC DAY ARE BASED ON 3-DAY DAILY AVERAGE AROUND SPECIFIED DATE

LONG TERM AVERAGE PERIOD OF RECORD, 1918-2015

LAKE ONTARIO FORECAST ADAPTED FROM INTERNATIONAL LAKE ONTARIO –ST. LAWRENCE RIVER BOARD

FORECASTED INFORMATION PROVIDED BY

RECORDED DATA (1918 – present)

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT

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Detroit District Disclaimer

NOTICE:  All data contained herein is preliminary in nature and therefore subject to change. The data is for general information purposes ONLY and SHALL NOT be used in technical applications such as, but not limited to, studies or designs. All critical data should be obtained from and verified by the United States Army Corps of Engineers, Detroit District, Engineering and Technical Services, Great Lakes Hydraulics and Hydrology Office, 477 Michigan Ave., Detroit, MI 48226. The United States of America assumes no liability for the completeness or accuracy of the data contained herein and any use of such data inconsistent with this disclaimer shall be solely at the risk of the user.