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Weekly Forecast

ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS WEEKLY GREAT LAKES WATER LEVEL UPDATE

Feb 23, 2024

 

WEATHER CONDITIONS

Temperatures across the Great Lakes basin were below average last Friday. Since then, temperatures increased every day, resulting in above average temperatures by Wednesday. In several parts of the basin, the daily high on Wednesday reached 60-65 degrees Fahrenheit. The precipitation during this period has been negligible throughout the basin, which is a continuation of weather patterns this month that are much drier than in a typical February. Temperatures will start to fall leading into the weekend, and will briefly drop below average by Saturday, before returning to warmer than average temperatures by Monday. Dry conditions will mostly persist through Monday, along with chances of snow showers, particularly in the Superior and Michigan basins.

LAKE LEVEL CONDITIONS

Predicted February 23rd water levels for Lakes Superior and St. Clair are 2 and 9 inches below what they were last month, respectively, while the Lake Michigan-Huron level has remained similar.  Forecasted February 23rd water levels for Lakes Erie and Ontario are 5 and 4 inches above their levels of a month ago, respectively. All the predicted levels are lower or equal to last year’s values, with Lake Superior exhibiting the largest drop since then, at 8 inches. Lake Superior is also predicted to stay near its long-term February average, while Lakes Michigan-Huron, St. Clair, Erie and Ontario are predicted to be 3, 13, 15, and 3 inches above their long-term February averages, respectively. Over the next month, Lake Superior is forecast to drop another inch, with the other lakes rising between 1 and 4 inches. See our Daily Levels web page for more water level information.

FORECASTED MONTHLY OUTFLOWS/CHANNEL CONDITIONS

Lake Superior’s outflow into the St. Marys River is expected to be near average for February. Lake Michigan-Huron outflow through the St. Clair River and Lake St. Clair’s outflow into the Detroit River are projected to be above average for February. Lake Erie outflow through the Niagara River, and Lake Ontario outflow through the St. Lawrence River are projected to be above average in February.

ALERTS

Water levels shown are still-water surface elevations over the entire lake surface. Water levels at specific locations may differ due to meteorological influences. Official records are based on monthly average water levels and not daily water levels. Great Lakes, connecting channels, and St. Lawrence River users should keep informed of current conditions before undertaking any activities affected by changing water levels. Mariners should use navigation charts and refer to current water level readings. Find ice information at National Ice Center’s website.

SUPERIOR

MICH-HURON

ST. CLAIR

ERIE

ONTARIO

Forecasted Water Level for Feb 23, 2024 (feet)

601.21

578.71

574.64

572.21

245.08

Chart Datum (feet)

601.10

577.50

572.30

569.20

243.30

Difference from chart datum (inches)

+1

+15

+28

+36

+21

Difference from average water level for Jan 23, 2024 (inches*)

-2

0

-9

+5

+4

Difference from average water level for Feb 23, 2023 (inches*)

-8

-1

-2

0

-4

Difference from long-term monthly average of Feb (inches)

-1

+3

+13

+15

+3

Difference from highest monthly average of record for Feb (inches)

-15

-33

-26

-19

-22

Year of highest recorded monthly mean

2020

2020

1986

2020

1952

Difference from lowest monthly average of record for Feb (inches)

+19

+31

+50

+48

+36

Year of lowest recorded monthly mean

1926

1964

1926

1936

1936

Projected net change in levels by Mar 23, 2024 (inches)

-1

+1

+4

+2

+4

ALL DATA SHOWN IN THIS SUMMARY ARE REFERENCED TO IGLD 1985

*VALUES FOR SPECIFIC DAY ARE BASED ON 3-DAY DAILY AVERAGE AROUND SPECIFIED DATE

LONG TERM AVERAGE PERIOD OF RECORD, 1918-2022

FORECASTED INFORMATION PROVIDED BY

RECORDED DATA (1918 – present)

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT

Department of the Army

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Detroit District Great Lakes Homepage

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Weekly Great Lakes Water Levels

We do not have the ability to offer email updates at this time.  The Weekly Forecast of Great Lakes Water Levels is updated each week and will be posted by close of business on Friday.

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Detroit District Disclaimer

NOTICE: All data contained herein is preliminary in nature and therefore subject to change. The data is for general information purposes ONLY and SHALL NOT be used in technical applications such as, but not limited to, studies or designs. All critical data should be obtained from and verified by the United States Army Corps of Engineers, Detroit District, Engineering and Construction Division, Hydraulics and Hydrology Branch, 477 Michigan Ave., Detroit, MI 48226. The United States of America assumes no liability for the completeness or accuracy of the data contained herein and any use of such data inconsistent with this disclaimer shall be solely at the risk of the user.