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Weekly Forecast

ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS WEEKLY GREAT LAKES WATER LEVEL UPDATE

May 27, 2022

 

WEATHER CONDITIONS

A cold front arrived in the basin last weekend that lasted into the week bringing below average temperatures. Temperatures warmed over the workweek to near and above average. Last week saw average precipitation across most of the basin with above average rainfall across northern Wisconsin, northern-Lower Peninsula of Michigan, and Michigan's Upper Peninsula. Expect warmer temperatures and drier conditions for Memorial Day weekend across the southern half of the basin while the northern half will continue with below to near average temperatures. Expect above average temperatures beginning and through next week. Forecasts show northern Lake Superior basin receiving rainfall throughout next week. Expect dry conditions across most of the remaining basin starting next week with a chance of precipitation across most of the basin late next week.

LAKE LEVEL CONDITIONS

Forecasted water levels for May 27th are near to below water levels from a year ago on all lakes, besides Lake Ontario, which is 17 inches above last year’s level. All lakes have experienced a rise in water levels since last month, except Lake Ontario which is 2 inches below its water level of a month ago; remaining lakes range from 2 to 7 inches above levels of a month ago. Forecasted levels for May 27th on all lakes are above their long-term monthly average May levels by 5 to 15 inches. Forecasts show water levels rising 3 inches on Lake Superior and 2 inches on Lake Michigan-Huron, remaining near this month’s levels on Lake St. Clair and Lake Erie, and falling 2 inches on Lake Ontario by June 27th. See our Daily Levels web page for more water level information.

FORECASTED MONTHLY OUTFLOWS/CHANNEL CONDITIONS

Predictions indicate Lake Superior’s outflow through the St. Marys River will be about average in May. Forecasts show Lake Michigan-Huron’s outflow through St. Clair River, Lake St. Clair’s outflow into Detroit, Lake Erie’s outflow into Niagara River, and Lake Ontario’s outflow through St. Lawrence River will be above average in May.

ALERTS

Water levels shown are still-water surface elevations over the entire lake surface. Water levels at specific locations may differ substantially due to meteorological influences. Official records are based on monthly average water levels and not daily water levels. Great Lakes, connecting channels and St. Lawrence River users should keep informed of current conditions before undertaking any activities affected by changing water levels. Mariners should utilize navigation charts and refer to current water level readings.

SUPERIOR

MICH-HURON

ST. CLAIR

ERIE

ONTARIO

Forecasted Water Level for May 27, 2022 (feet)

602.07

579.95

575.92

573.16

246.56

Chart Datum (feet)

601.10

577.50

572.30

569.20

243.30

Difference from chart datum (inches)

+12

+29

+43

+48

+39

Difference from average water level for Apr 27, 2022 (inches*)

+7

+2

+4

+4

-2

Difference from average water level for May 27, 2021 (inches*)

-1

-7

-3

0

+17

Difference from long-term monthly average of May (inches)

+6

+11

+15

+15

+5

Difference from highest monthly average of record for May (inches)

-10

-24

-17

-15

-26

Year of highest recorded monthly mean

2019

2020

2020

2020

2017

Difference from lowest monthly average of record for May (inches)

+30

+41

+44

+50

+41

Year of lowest recorded monthly mean

1926

1964

1934

1934

1935

Projected net change in levels by Jun 27, 2022 (inches)

+3

+2

0

0

-2

ALL DATA SHOWN IN THIS SUMMARY ARE REFERENCED TO IGLD 1985

*VALUES FOR SPECIFIC DAY ARE BASED ON 3-DAY DAILY AVERAGE AROUND SPECIFIED DATE

LONG TERM AVERAGE PERIOD OF RECORD, 1918-2021

FORECASTED INFORMATION PROVIDED BY

RECORDED DATA (1918 – present)

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT

Department of the Army

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Detroit District Great Lakes Homepage

Detroit District, Corps of Engineers

NOAA Center for Operational Oceanic Products and Services

International Joint Commission

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1-888-694-8313 ext. 1

 

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Weekly Great Lakes Water Levels

We do not have the ability to offer email updates at this time.  The Weekly Forecast of Great Lakes Water Levels is updated each week on Thursday afternoon or Friday morning depending on data availability.

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Detroit District Disclaimer

NOTICE: All data contained herein is preliminary in nature and therefore subject to change. The data is for general information purposes ONLY and SHALL NOT be used in technical applications such as, but not limited to, studies or designs. All critical data should be obtained from and verified by the United States Army Corps of Engineers, Detroit District, Engineering and Construction Division, Hydraulics and Hydrology Branch, 477 Michigan Ave., Detroit, MI 48226. The United States of America assumes no liability for the completeness or accuracy of the data contained herein and any use of such data inconsistent with this disclaimer shall be solely at the risk of the user.