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Weekly Forecast

ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS WEEKLY GREAT LAKES WATER LEVEL UPDATE

Nov 25, 2022

 

       

WEATHER CONDITIONS

Last weekend, temperatures in the Great Lakes basin were, in general, 10-15 degrees (F) below normal. Daily high temperatures were below 30 degrees (F) in the majority of the basin on Saturday, but had climbed to near average by Tuesday. A historic lake-effect snowstorm pummeled western New York last week, as Orchard Park, NY, experienced around 80 inches of snow from Wednesday to Sunday. Lake-effect snowfall also pounded Erie, PA, and Grand Rapids, MI, with around 2 feet of snow in that same time period. Also, Lake Superior has already experienced over 100% of its November average precipitation. This weekend, temperatures in the basin will start out moderately above average but will be near average on Sunday and early in the workweek. Most of the region will experience precipitation on Saturday night and Sunday.

LAKE LEVEL CONDITIONS

The forecasted November 25th water level for Lake Superior is identical to what it was a month ago, while the November 25th levels for Lakes Michigan-Huron, St. Clair, and Erie are 2 to 5 inches below their levels of month ago. Lake Ontario’s forecasted November 25th level is an inch higher than last month’s level. Lake Superior is 9 inches above its level of a year ago, while the other lakes are 8 to 17 inches below last year’s levels. In addition, Lake Ontario’s November 25th forecasted level is below its long-term November monthly average level, while the lower lakes remain 4 to 7 inches above their long-term November average levels.  Lakes Superior and Michigan-Huron are in their seasonal decline and are projected to drop 2 to 4 inches over the next month. The forecasted Christmas Day levels of Lakes St. Clair, Erie, and Ontario are expected to nearly match their projected November 25th levels.  See our Daily Levels web page for more water level information.

FORECASTED MONTHLY OUTFLOWS/CHANNEL CONDITIONS

Forecasts show Lake Superior outflow through St. Marys River, Lake Michigan-Huron outflow through St. Clair River, Lake St. Clair outflow through Detroit River, and Lake Erie outflow through Niagara River will be above average in November. Lake Ontario outflow through the St. Lawrence River is forecast to be below average in November.

ALERTS

Water levels shown are still-water surface elevations over the entire lake surface. Water levels at specific locations may differ due to meteorological influences. Official records are based on monthly average water levels and not daily water levels. Great Lakes, connecting channels and St. Lawrence River users should keep informed of current conditions before undertaking any activities affected by changing water levels. Mariners should use navigation charts and refer to current water level readings.

SUPERIOR

MICH-HURON

ST. CLAIR

ERIE

ONTARIO

Forecasted Water Level for Nov 25, 2022 (feet)

602.33

579.17

574.41

571.56

244.16

Chart Datum (feet)

601.10

577.50

572.30

569.20

243.30

Difference from chart datum (inches)

+15

+20

+25

+28

+10

Difference from average water level for Oct 25, 2022 (inches*)

0

-2

-5

-3

+1

Difference from average water level for Nov 25, 2021 (inches*)

+9

-8

-13

-15

-17

 

Difference from long-term monthly average of Nov (inches)

+4

+5

+6

+7

-5

Difference from highest monthly average of record for Nov (inches)

-12

-33

-29

-25

-30

Year of highest recorded monthly mean

1985

1986

1986

1986

1945

Difference from lowest monthly average of record for Nov (inches)

+23

+35

+35

+40

+26

Year of lowest recorded monthly mean

1925

1964

1934

1934

1934

 

Projected net change in levels by Dec 25, 2022 (inches)

-4

-2

0

0

0

ALL DATA SHOWN IN THIS SUMMARY ARE REFERENCED TO IGLD 1985

*VALUES FOR SPECIFIC DAY ARE BASED ON 3-DAY DAILY AVERAGE AROUND SPECIFIED DATE

LONG TERM AVERAGE PERIOD OF RECORD, 1918-2021

FORECASTED INFORMATION PROVIDED BY

RECORDED DATA (1918 – present)

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT

Department of the Army

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Detroit District Great Lakes Homepage

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Weekly Great Lakes Water Levels

We do not have the ability to offer email updates at this time.  The Weekly Forecast of Great Lakes Water Levels is updated each week on Thursday afternoon or Friday morning depending on data availability.

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Detroit District Disclaimer

NOTICE: All data contained herein is preliminary in nature and therefore subject to change. The data is for general information purposes ONLY and SHALL NOT be used in technical applications such as, but not limited to, studies or designs. All critical data should be obtained from and verified by the United States Army Corps of Engineers, Detroit District, Engineering and Construction Division, Hydraulics and Hydrology Branch, 477 Michigan Ave., Detroit, MI 48226. The United States of America assumes no liability for the completeness or accuracy of the data contained herein and any use of such data inconsistent with this disclaimer shall be solely at the risk of the user.