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Weekly Forecast

ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS WEEKLY GREAT LAKES WATER LEVEL UPDATE

Sep 13, 2019

 

WEATHER CONDITIONS

Temperatures throughout the Great Lakes basin started off last week slightly cooler than average but warmed into the middle of the week. Along with warmer temperatures the Great Lakes basin experienced increased precipitation following what had been a slightly dryer than average period for Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio. Much of the Great Lakes basin received at least half an inch of rain Wednesday evening, with some areas receiving several inches. Precipitation is forecasted to continue into the weekend with 1 inch predicted for the western portions of Lake Superior and Lake Michigan on Friday. The system will pick up slightly as it moves east, before dissipating over Michigan on Saturday. Showers are expected to clear up headed into next week as temperatures move into the mid 70’s and low 80’s.

LAKE LEVEL CONDITIONS

The majority of the Great Lakes have entered their seasonal declines at this time but levels are still relatively high compared to long term averages. Lake Superior and Lake St. Clair are both forecasted to be an inch above their highest monthly average for September on the 13th, with Lake Erie forecasted to be 2 inches above. Lakes Michigan-Huron and Ontario are predicted to be only 5 inches below their highest monthly average for September on the 13th. Lake levels are forecasted to continue their seasonal decline headed into October with predicted net decreases of 1 inch on Lake Superior, 3 inches on Lake Michigan-Huron, 5 inches on both Lake St. Clair and Erie, and 8 inches on Lake Ontario. See our Daily Levels web page for more water level information.

FORECASTED MONTHLY OUTFLOWS/CHANNEL CONDITIONS

Outflows from Lake Superior into the St. Mary’s River is forecasted to be above average for September. Lake Michigan-Huron’s outflow through the St. Clair River and Lake St. Clair’s outflow through the Detroit River, are also projected to be above average in September. Moreover, Lake Erie’s outflow through the Niagara River and Lake Ontario’s outflow through the St. Lawrence River are predicted to be above average for September.

ALERTS

Water levels shown are still-water surface elevations over the entire lake surface.   Water levels at specific locations may differ substantially due to meteorological influences. Official records are based on monthly average water levels and not daily water levels. Users of the Great Lakes, connecting channels and St. Lawrence River should keep informed of current conditions before undertaking any activities that could be affected by changing water levels. Mariners should utilize navigation charts and refer to current water level readings. High water levels and potentially record high water levels are expected to persist for at least the next six months, so flood prone areas are expected to remain vulnerable.

SUPERIOR

MICH-HURON

ST. CLAIR

ERIE

ONTARIO

Forecasted Water Level for Sep 13, 2019 (feet)

603.28

581.56

576.97

573.75

246.98

Chart Datum (feet)

601.10

577.50

572.30

569.20

243.30

Difference from chart datum (inches)

+26

+49

+56

+55

+44

Difference from average water level for Aug 13, 2019 (inches*)

0

-3

-4

-6

-11

Difference from average water level for Sep 13, 2018 (inches*)

+8

+12

+9

+8

+21

Difference from long-term monthly average of Sep (inches)

+13

+30

+30

+28

+21

Difference from highest monthly average of record for Sep (inches)

+1

-5

+1

+2

-5

Year of highest recorded monthly mean

1985

1986

1986

1986

1947

Difference from lowest monthly average of record for Sep (inches)

+34

+59

+60

+59

+54

Year of lowest recorded monthly mean

2007

1964

1934

1934

1934

Projected net change in levels by Oct 13, 2019 (inches)

-1

-3

-5

-5

-8

ALL DATA SHOWN IN THIS SUMMARY ARE REFERENCED TO IGLD 1985

*VALUES FOR SPECIFIC DAY ARE BASED ON 3-DAY DAILY AVERAGE AROUND SPECIFIED DATE

LONG TERM AVERAGE PERIOD OF RECORD, 1918-2018

FORECASTED INFORMATION PROVIDED BY

RECORDED DATA (1918 – present)

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT

Department of the Army

provided by

Detroit District Great Lakes Homepage

Detroit District, Corps of Engineers

NOAA Center for Operational Oceanic Products and Services

International Joint Commission

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1-888-694-8313 ext. 1

 

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Weekly Great Lakes Water Levels

We do not have the ability to offer email updates at this time.  The Weekly Forecast of Great Lakes Water Levels is updated each week on Thursday afternoon or Friday morning depending on data availability.

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Detroit District Disclaimer

NOTICE: All data contained herein is preliminary in nature and therefore subject to change. The data is for general information purposes ONLY and SHALL NOT be used in technical applications such as, but not limited to, studies or designs. All critical data should be obtained from and verified by the United States Army Corps of Engineers, Detroit District, Engineering and Technical Services, Great Lakes Hydraulics and Hydrology Office, 477 Michigan Ave., Detroit, MI 48226. The United States of America assumes no liability for the completeness or accuracy of the data contained herein and any use of such data inconsistent with this disclaimer shall be solely at the risk of the user.