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Weekly Forecast

ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS WEEKLY GREAT LAKES WATER LEVEL UPDATE

Jan 27, 2023

 

WEATHER CONDITIONS

Generally, near to above normal temperatures were experienced throughout much of the region in the last week with places like Grand Rapids, MI and Buffalo, NY reaching high temperatures over 30 degrees (F) over the weekend. On Wednesday, a system brought snowfall to the region, accumulating upwards of 5 inches across southeast Michigan and 1 to 2 inches in northwest portions of the basin. For the coming week, temperatures will continue to be above normal in the near term and are expected to drop by the beginning of the work week with most areas across the region hovering just below average. Over the weekend, another system will bring the chance for snow, mixed precipitation, or rain as it moves across the region. The work week ahead looks to be mostly dry, aside from a low chance of precipitation in the eastern portions of the basin.

LAKE LEVEL CONDITIONS

The forecasted January 27th water levels for Lakes Superior and St. Clair are 2 and 3 inches, respectively, below their levels from a month ago, while Lakes Erie and Ontario are 7 and 8 inches, respectively, above what they were a month ago. Lake Michigan-Huron is near its level from last month. Forecasted water levels for January 27th for Lakes Superior and St. Clair are 12 and 2 inches, respectively, above their levels from a year ago, while Lakes Michigan-Huron, Erie, and Ontario are 5 to 7 inches below their levels from a year ago. All of the lakes continue to be above their January long-term average levels. Over the next 30 days, Lake Superior is projected to fall 3 inches, while Lakes St. Clair, Erie, and Ontario are expected to rise 1 inch. No change is forecast for Lake Michigan-Huron. See our Daily Levels web page for more water level information.

FORECASTED MONTHLY OUTFLOWS/CHANNEL CONDITIONS

Forecasts show Lake Superior outflow through St. Marys River, Lake Michigan-Huron outflow through St. Clair River, Lake St. Clair outflow through Detroit River, and Lake Erie outflow through Niagara River will be above average in January. Forecasts show Lake Ontario outflow through the St. Lawrence River will also be above average in January.

ALERTS

Water levels shown are still-water surface elevations over the entire lake surface. Water levels at specific locations may differ due to meteorological influences. Official records are based on monthly average water levels and not daily water levels. Great Lakes, connecting channels, and St. Lawrence River users should keep informed of current conditions before undertaking any activities affected by changing water levels. Mariners should use navigation charts and refer to current water level readings. Ice information can be found at the National Ice Center’s website.

SUPERIOR

MICH-HURON

ST. CLAIR

ERIE

ONTARIO

Forecasted Water Level for Jan 27, 2023 (feet)

602.07

578.87

574.74

572.01

245.08

Chart Datum (feet)

601.10

577.50

572.30

569.20

243.30

Difference from chart datum (inches)

+12

+16

+29

+34

+21

Difference from average water level for Dec 27, 2022 (inches*)

-2

0

-3

+7

+8

Difference from average water level for Jan 27, 2022 (inches*)

+12

-5

+2

-6

-7

Difference from long-term monthly average of Jan (inches)

+7

+5

+12

+13

+5

Difference from highest monthly average of record for Jan (inches)

-8

-32

-24

-20

-18

Year of highest recorded monthly mean

2020

2020

2020

1987

1946

Difference from lowest monthly average of record for Jan (inches)

+27

+34

+51

+45

+35

Year of lowest recorded monthly mean

1926

2013

1936

1935

1935

Projected net change in levels by Feb 27, 2023 (inches)

-3

0

+1

+1

+1

ALL DATA SHOWN IN THIS SUMMARY ARE REFERENCED TO IGLD 1985

*VALUES FOR SPECIFIC DAY ARE BASED ON 3-DAY DAILY AVERAGE AROUND SPECIFIED DATE

LONG TERM AVERAGE PERIOD OF RECORD, 1918-2021

FORECASTED INFORMATION PROVIDED BY

RECORDED DATA (1918 – present)

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT

Department of the Army

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Detroit District Great Lakes Homepage

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Weekly Great Lakes Water Levels

We do not have the ability to offer email updates at this time.  The Weekly Forecast of Great Lakes Water Levels is updated each week on Thursday afternoon or Friday morning depending on data availability.

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Detroit District Disclaimer

NOTICE: All data contained herein is preliminary in nature and therefore subject to change. The data is for general information purposes ONLY and SHALL NOT be used in technical applications such as, but not limited to, studies or designs. All critical data should be obtained from and verified by the United States Army Corps of Engineers, Detroit District, Engineering and Construction Division, Hydraulics and Hydrology Branch, 477 Michigan Ave., Detroit, MI 48226. The United States of America assumes no liability for the completeness or accuracy of the data contained herein and any use of such data inconsistent with this disclaimer shall be solely at the risk of the user.