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Weekly Forecast

ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS WEEKLY GREAT LAKES WATER LEVEL UPDATE

Dec 13, 2019

 

       

WEATHER CONDITIONS

Last Friday and Saturday, seasonable temperatures prevailed in the Great Lakes basin. On Sunday and Monday, however, there was a significant spike in temperatures throughout the basin. Some areas experienced daily high temperatures in the low to mid-50’s. Nonetheless, temperatures took a nosedive on Tuesday and Wednesday falling between 10-20 degrees below average by Wednesday. The daily high temperature in Cleveland, OH, went from 52 degrees on Tuesday to 29 degrees on Wednesday. In addition, precipitation in the basin month-to-date is slightly below average. This weekend, temperatures will generally range from near average to slightly above average, but will dip noticeably on Sunday.  A mixture of rain and snow is projected in most of the region on Saturday, while there is a high likelihood of significant snowfall in much of the basin on Monday.

LAKE LEVEL CONDITIONS

The predicted levels of the Great Lakes for December 13th are 1 inch below their levels from a month ago, with the exception of Lakes St. Clair and Ontario, which are predicted to be 4 inches less than it was one month ago.  For this time of year, water levels are well above average, ranging from 14 to 36 inches above the average December level.  Moreover, the lakes are 2 to 17 inches above their levels from a year ago.  In one month, the levels are forecasted to be 3 and 2 inches below where they are now, for Lakes Superior and Michigan Huron.  On the contrary, Lakes St. Clair, Lake Erie and Lake Ontario are forecasted to rise by 2, 1 and 2 inches respectively.  See our Daily Levels web page for more water level information.

FORECASTED MONTHLY OUTFLOWS/CHANNEL CONDITIONS

Outflows from Lake Superior into the St. Mary’s River and Lake Michigan-Huron’s outflow into the St. Clair River are projected to be above average for December. Lake St. Clair’s outflow through the Detroit River is also predicted to be above average in December. In addition, Lake Erie’s outflow through the Niagara River and Lake Ontario’s outflow through the St. Lawrence River are forecasted to be above average for December.  Water levels and flows in the connecting channels can be significantly impacted by ice during the winter months

ALERTS

Water levels shown are still-water surface elevations over the entire lake surface. Water levels at specific locations may differ substantially due to meteorological influences. Official records are based on monthly average water levels and not daily water levels. Users of the Great Lakes, connecting channels and St. Lawrence River should keep informed of current conditions before undertaking any activities that could be affected by changing water levels. Mariners should utilize navigation charts and refer to current water level readings. High water levels and potentially record high water levels are expected to persist for at least the next six months, so flood prone areas are expected to remain vulnerable. Ice information can be found at the National Ice Center’s website.

SUPERIOR

MICH-HURON

ST. CLAIR

ERIE

ONTARIO

Forecasted Water Level for Dec 13, 2019 (feet)

602.92

581.53

576.18

572.97

245.96

Chart Datum (feet)

601.10

577.50

572.30

569.20

243.30

Difference from chart datum (inches)

+22

+48

+47

+45

+32

Difference from average water level for Nov 13, 2019 (inches*)

-1

-1

-4

-1

-4

Difference from average water level for Dec 13, 2018 (inches*)

+4

+17

+6

+2

+11

 

Difference from long-term monthly average of Dec (inches)

+14

+36

+28

+25

+17

Difference from highest monthly average of record for Dec (inches)

-2

0

-7

-10

-9

Year of highest recorded monthly mean

1985

1986

1986

1986

1945

Difference from lowest monthly average of record for Dec (inches)

+33

+65

+54

+57

+48

Year of lowest recorded monthly mean

1925

2012

1964

1934

1934

 

Projected net change in levels by Jan 13, 2020 (inches)

-3

-2

+2

+1

+2

ALL DATA SHOWN IN THIS SUMMARY ARE REFERENCED TO IGLD 1985

*VALUES FOR SPECIFIC DAY ARE BASED ON 3-DAY DAILY AVERAGE AROUND SPECIFIED DATE

LONG TERM AVERAGE PERIOD OF RECORD, 1918-2018

FORECASTED INFORMATION PROVIDED BY

RECORDED DATA (1918 – present)

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT

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Weekly Great Lakes Water Levels

We do not have the ability to offer email updates at this time.  The Weekly Forecast of Great Lakes Water Levels is updated each week on Thursday afternoon or Friday morning depending on data availability.

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Detroit District Disclaimer

NOTICE: All data contained herein is preliminary in nature and therefore subject to change. The data is for general information purposes ONLY and SHALL NOT be used in technical applications such as, but not limited to, studies or designs. All critical data should be obtained from and verified by the United States Army Corps of Engineers, Detroit District, Engineering and Technical Services, Great Lakes Hydraulics and Hydrology Office, 477 Michigan Ave., Detroit, MI 48226. The United States of America assumes no liability for the completeness or accuracy of the data contained herein and any use of such data inconsistent with this disclaimer shall be solely at the risk of the user.