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Weekly Forecast

ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS WEEKLY GREAT LAKES WATER LEVEL UPDATE

Mar 22, 2024

 

WEATHER CONDITIONS

Following some unseasonable warmth in the region, temperatures dropped over the last week, yet still remained at least 3 – 6oF above normal for a majority of the Great Lakes basin. Precipitation has been slightly below average for the northwestern portion of the Great Lakes basin and the southeastern portions of Lakes Erie and Ontario but slightly above average for rest of the basin. Much of the basin saw some snow on Sunday and/or Monday. Exceptionally low ice coverage for this time of year persisted, averaging less than 3% across all the Great Lakes. Snow and rain moved into the region late Thursday into Friday, with some cities in the western portion of the basin like Milwaukee, WI and Grand Rapids, MI potentially accumulating at least 4 inches of snow. While temperatures have continued to drop at the end of this week, they are projected to rebound with highs into the 40s by Sunday giving a warmer start to the work week.

LAKE LEVEL CONDITIONS

The predicted March 22nd water level for Lake Superior is an inch below what it was last month, while Lake Erie is projected to be equal to last month’s level and Lakes Michigan-Huron, Saint Clair and Ontario are expected to be 1, 2 and 2 inches below. Predicted March 22nd water levels are projected to be below last year’s levels for all of the Lakes; Lakes Superior, Michigan-Huron, Saint Clair, Erie and Ontario are expected to be 9, 1, 3, 4, and 6 inches below, respectively. Lake Superior is predicted to be an inch below its long-term March average, whereas Lakes Michigan-Huron, St. Clair, Erie and Ontario are predicted to be 3, 11, 12 and 2 inches above their long-term March averages, respectively. Over the next month, water levels are expected to rise in all of the Lakes; Superior, Michigan-Huron, St. Clair, Erie and Ontario levels are expected to rise by 1, 2, 3, 3, and 7 inches respectively.

FORECASTED MONTHLY OUTFLOWS/CHANNEL CONDITIONS

Lake Superior’s outflow into the St. Mary’s River is expected to be near average for March. Lake Michigan-Huron outflow through the St. Clair River and Lake St. Clair’s outflow into the Detroit River are projected to be above average for March. Lake Erie outflow through the Niagara River, and Lake Ontario outflow through the St. Lawrence River are projected to be above average in March.

ALERTS

Water levels shown are still-water surface elevations over the entire lake surface. Water levels at specific locations may differ due to meteorological influences. Official records are based on monthly average water levels and not daily water levels. Great Lakes, connecting channels, and St. Lawrence River users should keep informed of current conditions before undertaking any activities affected by changing water levels. Mariners should use navigation charts and refer to current water level readings. Find ice information at National Ice Center’s website.

SUPERIOR

MICH-HURON

ST. CLAIR

ERIE

ONTARIO

Forecasted Water Level for Mar 22, 2024 (feet)

601.12

578.74

574.84

572.24

245.24

Chart Datum (feet)

601.10

577.50

572.30

569.20

243.30

Difference from chart datum (inches)

0

+15

+30

+36

+23

Difference from average water level for Feb 22, 2024 (inches*)

-1

+1

+2

0

+2

Difference from average water level for Mar 22, 2023 (inches*)

-9

-1

-3

-4

-6

Difference from long-term monthly average of Mar (inches)

-1

+3

+11

+12

+2

Difference from highest monthly average of record for Mar (inches)

-15

-32

-24

-21

-24

Year of highest recorded monthly mean

1986

2020

2020

2020

1952

Difference from lowest monthly average of record for Mar (inches)

+19

+32

+46

+48

+32

Year of lowest recorded monthly mean

1926

1964

1934

1934

1935

Projected net change in levels by Apr 22, 2024 (inches)

+1

+2

+3

+3

+7

ALL DATA SHOWN IN THIS SUMMARY ARE REFERENCED TO IGLD 1985

*VALUES FOR SPECIFIC DAY ARE BASED ON 3-DAY DAILY AVERAGE AROUND SPECIFIED DATE

LONG TERM AVERAGE PERIOD OF RECORD, 1918-2023

FORECASTED INFORMATION PROVIDED BY

RECORDED DATA (1918 – present)

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT

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Weekly Great Lakes Water Levels

We do not have the ability to offer email updates at this time.  The Weekly Forecast of Great Lakes Water Levels is updated each week and will be posted by close of business on Friday.

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Detroit District Disclaimer

NOTICE: All data contained herein is preliminary in nature and therefore subject to change. The data is for general information purposes ONLY and SHALL NOT be used in technical applications such as, but not limited to, studies or designs. All critical data should be obtained from and verified by the United States Army Corps of Engineers, Detroit District, Engineering and Construction Division, Hydraulics and Hydrology Branch, 477 Michigan Ave., Detroit, MI 48226. The United States of America assumes no liability for the completeness or accuracy of the data contained herein and any use of such data inconsistent with this disclaimer shall be solely at the risk of the user.