The Lake Michigan Potential Damages Study (LMPDS) is expected to be the first of an approximately 10-year initiative of assessing the potential damages along all of the U.S. Great Lakes shorelines. Lake Michigan was chosen to be the first since it has severe erosion problems and was the highest damaged lake during the previous high water periods in the 1970s and 1980s.
The objective of the Lake Michigan Potential Damage Study (LMPDS) is to create a modeling procedure for estimating economic effects of lake level changes and related social, environmental, and cultural consequences. The LMPDS modeling approaches are expected to be the framework for economic assessments for each of the other Great Lakes. The LMPDS is also intended to be a forum for concerted information system development between international, federal, state, county, township, and municipal governance about the resource base that is commonly shared.
The LMPDS will address all economic factors in the coastal zone surrounding Lake Michigan, including coastlines, embayments, interconnected lake bodies, and rivers directly affected by the ranges of water levels defined in the study. Economic effects will be assessed for residential, commercial, industrial, and institutional uses and will include recreational boating, municipal water supply and wastewater treatment, and navigation within the confines of the coastal zone. The environmental consequences of extreme lake level fluctuations are also expected to be briefly addressed. These include impacts to fisheries, habitat diversity, endangered and threatened species, and archaeological and special natural features.
A secondary objective of the LMPDS is the development of a state-of-the-art Coastal Zone Management (CZM) tool. The CZM utility of the LMPDS system is a result of the requirements to predict erosion and flooding on a lakewide basis. It is also a necessary utility to assess the potential implication of CZM responses to future "what if" scenarios on potential damages. For example, higher lake levels may trigger increased construction of shoreline protection, which may exacerbate erosion in adjacent unprotected areas. The question is whether CZM policy instruments will be able to influence the riparian response to higher lake levels (presumably for the benefit of all). The CZM utility of the LMPDS system includes automated lake-wide assessment of sand supply and sediment budget, automated assessment of the influence of shore protection structures on a local and regional basis, and setback planning for erosion and flooding as they may be related to changing conditions in the future. The development of improved CZM was a key recommendation of the IJC Levels Reference Study.
Study participants so far include representatives from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, other U.S. federal agencies, international and regional entities (IJC and Great Lakes Commission, respectively) state agencies (including Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Wisconsin), and academic institutions (Sea Grant Universities, etc.).
The development of the study objectives and scoping have been predominately accomplished by USACE, Detroit District personnel. Critical input has been provided from staff of the USACE Great Lakes Regional Office (GLRO) and Waterways Experiment Station (WES), International Joint Commission (IJC), Environment Canada (EC), other U.S. and Canadian federal agencies and, of utmost importance, from input from staff of participating state agencies and academic institutions. Further, the development of a sound economic assessment of the broad impacts of lake level fluctuations will be reliant upon the input of local authorities, whenever possible.
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