The objective of this task is to develop a fourth module for the shore erosion prediction system which will provide an estimate of wave runup (extreme value analysis) and overtopping on a kilometer reach basis.

This has involved a relatively straightforward extension to the FEPS. The COSMOS coastal process model, which forms the core of FEPS, already includes runup and overtopping modules for beaches and dunes. This module (Figure below) has been modified to perform runup and overtopping estimates on coastal structures using standard Corps of Engineer techniques for each of the future lake level scenarios. The extent of the flooding and inundation has then been mapped on Digital Elevation Models for these areas.

The results from this task will be used to complete flooding estimates in the five prototype counties. It will provide a system that can predict runup statistics on a 1 km reach basis for the historic and future water level scenarios.

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